The International Monetary Fund has modelled a scenario where global oil prices reach US$130 a barrel, which could raise Australian petrol prices by 30 cents a litre, according to economists cited by The Guardian.
The IMF's latest World Economic Outlook included this scenario to assess the impact of a worsening Middle East crisis extending into next year. The fund described the situation as a "clear and present danger" to global economic growth and inflation from disruptions in commodity and bond markets.
Economists have warned that such a fuel price spike could pressure the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates. The IMF analysis examines how geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East could ripple through global energy markets and affect inflation worldwide.
The current source material does not specify which economists hold this view, current Australian fuel prices, the timeline for the modelled scenario, or how the Reserve Bank might respond. The article excerpt does not provide detail on the IMF's base-case forecast or how likely the fund considers this US$130-a-barrel scenario to be.